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SOL reclaims $72, but onchain data flags weakening momentum
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- DeepHorus
Solana’s native token SOL rebounded to $72 on Friday, recovering from a $64 low earlier in the week, driven by optimism over tokenized stock trading on its network. The price jump marked a 14% gain in two days, but onchain data reveals weakening fundamentals that could limit further upside. While traders celebrated the recovery, metrics such as declining total value locked (TVL) and falling decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes suggest fading momentum beneath the surface.
The surge in tokenized stocks, particularly those linked to the AI sector, provided a temporary boost to Solana’s ecosystem. According to Jupiter Aggregator, tokenized stocks on Solana traded over $113 million in 24 hours, sparking excitement among investors. However, liquidity in automated market-making pools remains thin, and multiple issuers are competing for similar products, raising concerns about sustainability. Many of these tokens launched recently, explaining the low number of holders in most cases.
Despite the hype, key onchain indicators paint a bearish picture. DefiLlama data shows Solana’s TVL dropped 11% over the past month, while Ethereum layer-2 Base narrowed the gap. Notable declines include Kamino falling 19%, Binance Staked SOL trimming 20%, and Raydium dropping 17%. Meanwhile, DEX volumes on Solana plunged to $10 billion per week from $30 billion in early February, coinciding with a downtrend in decentralized application (DApp) revenues.
Solana’s heavy reliance on the memecoin launch platform Pump.fun is a growing concern. The platform accounted for 30% of DApp revenue, yet a CoinGecko report revealed that 80% of tokens launched on it existed for less than 48 hours. Dune data further indicates that 55% of addresses involved lost up to $1,000, highlighting the speculative and risky nature of these activities. Such dependence on fleeting memecoin demand makes Solana’s ecosystem vulnerable.
On the derivatives side, SOL perpetual futures showed renewed bullish sentiment. The annualized funding rate climbed to its highest level in June, reaching 10%, which is within the neutral 6–12% range. This shift reversed the negative funding rates seen earlier, indicating moderate optimism. However, the rate is far from excessive confidence, suggesting traders remain cautious.
Part of SOL investors’ optimism stems from anticipation of upcoming airdrops on the network. Notable projects include OnRe reinsurance with $200 million in TVL, Bulk perpetual DEX with an aggregate open interest of $325 million, and Loopscale lending platform at $79 million in TVL. These airdrops could attract new users and capital, but their timing remains uncertain, leaving traders in a wait-and-see mode.
Increased competition in tokenized stock trading poses a significant threat to Solana’s momentum. Hyperliquid and centralized exchanges on competing blockchains, such as OKX’s partnership with the NYSE parent company using Ethereum-based systems, could siphon activity. Additionally, Solana’s TVL decline and DEX volume slump indicate weakening onchain demand, making a sustained rally above $80 challenging.
In conclusion, while SOL’s rebound to $72 is encouraging, the underlying data suggests fragility. The tokenized stock hype may provide short-term support, but declining TVL, low DEX volumes, and overdependence on Pump.fun expose risks. Without a catalyst to revive onchain demand, SOL may struggle to reclaim the $80 mark seen on June 1. Traders should monitor TVL trends and competitive developments closely.
