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Did BTC bottom?
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- Name
- DeepHorus
Bitcoin faces a critical test this week as bulls struggle to maintain the $60,000 support level, raising questions about whether the cryptocurrency has bottomed. After trading near $60,300, the market is at an inflection point with two opposing investor groups making different bets: retail investors selling while institutions watch from the sidelines. The outcome could determine Bitcoin's trajectory for the near term, with risks both to the downside and upside.
The broader market mood remains fearful, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sitting at 36 out of 100, indicating fear but not panic. In June, investors pulled $4.4 billion from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking the worst month this year for these funds. Meanwhile, corporate holders like Strategy continue to buy Bitcoin, though at a slower pace, and most corporate treasuries have not reduced their existing positions. This bifurcation suggests a lack of conviction among market participants.
Aggregate open interest in Bitcoin futures across all exchanges stands at $19.92 billion, down slightly from $20.1 billion two weeks ago, indicating an orderly unwinding of leverage rather than a panic. The funding rate for holding long positions has dropped from 0.25% to 0.12%, signaling that forced selling pressure has eased. However, traders are still paying to hold long positions, reflecting cautious optimism rather than full commitment to a recovery.
The immediate danger zone is $58,800, which represents Bitcoin's low for the day. If the price breaks below this level, approximately $500 million in long positions could be liquidated, potentially driving Bitcoin toward $56,000 and extending selling pressure into next week. This scenario underscores the fragility of the current support level and the risk of further downside.
On the institutional side, MicroStrategy bought 3,600 Bitcoin in June for $236 million, betting on a recovery, but overall institutions are holding rather than aggressively buying. Retail traders appear to have finished selling, yet no one is confident enough to buy in size, leading to a market in indecision. Trading volume is down, and open interest changes are minimal, reflecting a waiting game.
For Bitcoin to move meaningfully higher, it needs to reclaim $62,000, a level that could restore confidence and trigger fresh buying. However, macro events such as the June employment report or geopolitical tensions, like the resumption of military action in Iran, could weigh on sentiment and push Bitcoin back below $60,000. The current pause could break either way, depending on whether new sellers emerge or confidence returns.
The coming days will be pivotal for Bitcoin, with $58,800 acting as a key support line. A breakdown could lead to accelerated losses, while a recovery above $62,000 might signal a bottom. Traders and investors are closely watching economic data and global events, which could tip the scales in either direction. For now, the market remains in a cautious holding pattern, awaiting a catalyst.
