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Kremlin suspected of flying drones over Europe using Russian shadow fleet
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- DeepHorus
A recent report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has linked a series of mysterious drone flights over Europe to a coordinated Kremlin campaign, potentially launched from Russian-linked commercial ships and shadow fleet vessels. The drones disrupted major European airports and flew over NATO member military bases, including those hosting US nuclear weapons, between August 2024 and February 2026. The findings highlight growing concerns about Russian hybrid warfare tactics targeting European infrastructure and airspace security.
The IISS report analyzed automatic identification system (AIS) maritime tracking data and other publicly available information to show that Russian-linked ships and shadow fleet vessels transporting sanctioned Russian oil were often positioned near locations of drone incidents. These drones impacted a dozen NATO member countries and Ireland, revealing significant vulnerabilities in European air defenses against low-cost surveillance and harassment incursions. The think tank emphasized that the pattern of incursions suggests deliberate probing of allied defenses.
According to the report, 144 drone sightings over Europe during that period were unlikely to be hobbyist recreational drones or related to the war in Ukraine. Of these, 48 percent occurred over military bases, 26 percent over critical infrastructure such as ports and energy facilities, and 18 percent over civilian airports. Most sightings took place at night or in the early morning hours, with drones described as 'professional' or 'military-style' in media reports.
While the IISS report does not claim that all sightings were attributable to Russian drones, it describes the pattern as 'consistent with the Kremlin’s effort to probe allied defenses, test civilian-military response mechanisms and normalize low-level airspace violations.' The only directly attributed incident occurred in February 2026, when the Swedish military confirmed spotting and jamming a drone launched from the Russian signals intelligence vessel Zhigulevsk in Swedish territorial waters. That drone launch took place during a visit by the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its escort ships.
The confirmed incident demonstrates that Russian-linked ships have the capability to launch drones at sea for potential surveillance purposes, raising alarms about the security of maritime and airspace operations. European defense officials have expressed concern over the difficulty of detecting and countering such low-cost drones, which can evade traditional air defense systems. The report underscores the need for enhanced cooperation among NATO members to improve drone detection and response mechanisms.
Looking ahead, the IISS findings are likely to intensify scrutiny of Russian shadow fleet operations and spur calls for stricter maritime surveillance measures. European governments may invest in advanced drone detection technologies and expand collaboration with civilian aviation authorities to prevent future incursions. The incident serves as a stark reminder of the evolving hybrid threats facing Europe, requiring adaptive defense strategies to address unconventional yet impactful attacks below the threshold of armed conflict.
