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What’s behind the sell pressure?
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- DeepHorus
Bitcoin fell 3.5% on Wednesday, testing the crucial $60,000 support level as a confluence of geopolitical and economic factors triggered broad de-risking. The decline followed an oil price surge tied to escalating US-Iran tensions, renewed stress in Japan’s bond markets, and fresh selling from corporate holder Strategy.
Bitcoin's failed attempt to reclaim $64,500 on Monday coincided with a downtrend in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index. However, while the stock market recovered some losses on Wednesday, Bitcoin remained under pressure near $62,000, suggesting cryptocurrency-specific headwinds beyond broader market trends.
Brent crude jumped from $68 to $74 per barrel after President Trump declared the US-Iran memorandum “over” following strikes on Iranian sites. Higher energy costs increase inflationary risks, reducing the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Traders now price 69% odds of rate hikes by September, up from 42% a month prior.
Global economic uncertainty intensified as Trump demanded an end to US trade with Spain at the NATO summit, stoking fears of trade frictions. Meanwhile, Japan’s 10-year government bond yields hit a 30-year high, reflecting concerns over central bank independence and potential global contagion given Japan’s status as the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries.
Strategy’s announcement of $216 million in Bitcoin sales on Monday surprised investors, as the transactions occurred outside its core $1.25 billion Monetization Program. The company faces $1.76 billion in annual dividends and over $3.8 billion in convertible debt, with earliest call dates before April 2027, fueling fears of persistent sell pressure.
On the regulatory front, India’s central bank expressed strong support for policies prohibiting crypto activities, including barring banks from exposure to virtual assets. The tax department highlighted evasion risks. Such tightening global oversight adds another layer of negative pressure on Bitcoin’s price and market sentiment.
Analysts warn that Bitcoin could breach the $60,000 support level if selling pressure from Strategy continues and geopolitical tensions escalate. The cryptocurrency’s underperformance relative to equities suggests market participants are pricing in sustained headwinds. A recovery would require easing of oil prices, stabilization in Japanese bond markets, or clearer regulatory signals.
