- Published on
Why Analysts Aren’t Worried About Coinbase’s 30% Drop
- Authors
- Name
- DeepHorus
Coinbase shares rose nearly 4% on Wednesday after William Blair maintained an "outperform" rating despite slashing 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates by 34% and cutting revenue forecasts by 12-13%. The investment bank argued that key risks are already priced in, noting earnings should trough by year-end 2026 before rebounding in 2027. This optimism lifted Coinbase and Circle shares about 3-4% each, even as COIN has fallen nearly 30% this year and CRCL about 20%.
William Blair analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury expect Coinbase's total trading volume to fall roughly 44% this year to $669 billion before rebounding over 32% in 2027. They see the current cycle as structurally different from 2022 due to spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional flows, and regulatory maturation. They also highlighted Coinbase's Base layer-2 network and retail derivatives, which crossed $200 million annualized in Q1, as key revenue drivers beyond spot trading.
Not all analysts were as constructive. Piper Sandler's Patrick Moley cut his price target to $155 from $170, keeping a "neutral" rating. He flagged prediction markets and perpetual futures as defining Q2 themes, with the World Cup driving prediction market growth, and warned of "significant investor attention on the perpetual future threat" heading into Q3.
On the technical side, John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands indicator, identified a "W" double-bottom pattern on Bitcoin's daily chart. He described it as "perfectly fractal" and confirming a trend change. The pattern, also visible on the weekly chart, suggests potential Bitcoin recovery, which could boost Coinbase shares given their strong correlation.
Despite bullish signals, Bollinger acknowledged uncertainty, as previous setups were invalidated by selling pressure. William Blair's maintained outperform rating and volume rebound forecasts for 2027 indicate a long-term positive view, but risks from regulatory challenges and perpetual futures competition remain. Investors await Q2 earnings and Bitcoin's price action for near-term direction.
