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Bitcoin under $63,000 after new U.S. strike on Iran. Trump's China comment adds to uncertainty

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Bitcoin fell below $63,000 on Friday, its lowest level in over a week, as fresh U.S. airstrikes on Iran and renewed fears of U.S.-China tensions weighed on risk assets. The leading cryptocurrency by market value slipped to around $62,800 at press time, extending Thursday’s nearly 1.4% decline from $65,000, according to CoinDesk data. This marks a significant retreat from the $66,000 level seen earlier in the week, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments.

The downturn came after the United States launched a new wave of airstrikes in Iran, targeting five bridges in the southern Hormozgan province and a maritime control tower in Chabahar, as reported by Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency. Despite the escalation, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures held steady at around $79 per barrel, suggesting traders are pricing in limited supply disruption. Meanwhile, Asian equity markets wilted, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index falling nearly 3% to a one-month low.

Adding to the uncertainty, President Donald Trump announced the declassification of intelligence reports alleging Chinese interference in U.S. elections, claiming Beijing obtained 220 million voter records. China’s embassy promptly denied the allegations. The dispute is not market-moving in itself, but it threatens to strain relations ahead of Trump’s planned September meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, introducing a new source of friction risk.

The Australian dollar, a risk proxy sensitive to China’s economic fortunes, weakened against the U.S. dollar on these fears. InvestingLive’s Chief Asia-Pacific Currency Analyst Eamonn Sheridan noted that the rhetoric could complicate the diplomatic runway into September regardless of the underlying facts. The AUD’s drop may serve as a warning that any escalation in U.S.-China tensions could spill over into other risk assets, including Bitcoin.

On a positive note, centralized exchange (CEX) trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot trading volumes climbing 15.3% to $1.11 trillion. Real-world asset (RWA) perpetual volumes surged to a record $311 billion, indicating renewed interest in crypto derivatives despite the recent price weakness. This uptick in trading activity suggests that some investors see the current dip as a buying opportunity.

Looking ahead, analysts expect Bitcoin to remain under pressure as long as geopolitical risks persist. The 50-day simple moving average, which Bitcoin is trading just below, is a key technical level to watch. A decisive break below $62,000 could trigger further selling, while a recovery above $65,000 would signal renewed bullish momentum. The upcoming U.S.-China meeting and developments in Iran will likely dictate the short-term direction for cryptocurrencies.