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Wintermute
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- DeepHorus
Crypto's next altcoin season is likely to be more selective and produce fewer winners, according to a new report from market maker Wintermute. The firm's over-the-counter flow data for the first half of 2026 shows institutional counterparties accounted for 72% of spot trading across all tokens. That is the highest share on record, up from 61% in the second half of 2025 and 59% a year earlier.
Wintermute said institutional activity is concentrating in a narrower group of digital assets, while participation across the market's "long tail" has weakened. The report suggests future altcoin rallies could become narrower and more short-lived. Liquidity is clustering in the assets favored by large investors, leaving smaller tokens with less support.
Data from the firm highlights the divergence between institutional and retail behavior. Between the first half of 2024 and the first half of 2026, the number of unique tokens traded by Wintermute's institutional clients grew by only 24%, compared with 76% among retail customers. Institutional trading interest after a price and volume surge typically faded within about one day, while retail activity stayed elevated for roughly three days.
The findings add proprietary OTC data to other signs that capital is clustering around a smaller group of altcoins. On June 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the traditional rotation of Bitcoin profits into smaller assets had "basically disappeared." CryptoQuant data showed trading volume in Bitcoin-denominated altcoin pairs near its weakest level since 2021.
Market concentration is also visible in valuations and exchange data. The 10 largest non-stablecoin altcoins accounted for about 80.5% of the non-Bitcoin, non-stablecoin market capitalization. Kaiko found in July 2025 that the 10 largest altcoins represented 63% of altcoin trading volume, up from roughly 50% several months earlier.
Industry observers see the trend continuing. Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, argued in March that broad altcoin rallies are giving way to selective sector moves. He said too many tokens are competing for limited capital, while institutional investors remain focused on Bitcoin, Ether, and tokenized real-world assets.
Looking ahead, Wintermute's data suggests the next altseason may favor blue-chip tokens and certain sectors rather than across-the-board gains. Retail traders may still chase smaller tokens, but fading institutional appetite could limit the duration and scale of rallies. As the market matures, fundamentals are gaining importance over simply "100x" speculation.
