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XRP whales keep buying the dip, but ether shows deeper capitulation
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- DeepHorus
Large XRP holders have kept accumulating the token through its decline from roughly $2.40 in January to the current $1.00–$1.20 range, according to onchain data from CryptoQuant. The firm characterizes this behavior as "quiet absorption" rather than capitulation or a breakout. Meanwhile, ether trades below its realized price, marking a deeper capitulation that gives it the strongest valuation case among Bitcoin, XRP, and ETH.
The pattern emerges as the broader crypto market experiences a prolonged downturn. XRP's slide has been persistent, yet average spot order sizes remain in "big-whale" territory throughout 2026. CryptoQuant notes the 90-day taker cumulative volume delta has drifted to neutral after a taker-buy-dominant start to the year. This suggests whales are absorbing supply without driving prices upward, creating a basing range rather than a clear reversal.
Ether currently trades around $1,900, versus a realized price near $2,450, meaning the aggregate cost basis of all coins exceeds the market price. In contrast, Bitcoin sits roughly 17% above its $52,900 realized price, and XRP trades near $1.10 against a realized value around $0.75. These figures highlight that ether holders are underwater on paper, a condition that historically signals potential bottoming.
Onchain data reveals a split in ether's holder base. Wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH have grown from about 14 million in mid-2025 to record highs near 19.6 million. The 100,000-plus cohort dipped to 2.6 million in mid-2025 before climbing to roughly 4.6 million by May 2026. Meanwhile, mid-sized holders (1,000–10,000 ETH) have decreased, peaking at 15.6 million in January 2026 and falling to approximately 12.9 million. Bitcoin whales, excluding exchanges, bottomed near 2.87 million BTC in December 2025 and now hold about 3.06 million, though still 170,000 below the cycle peak.
Ether's below-cost trading serves as a key metric because it indicates capitulation on paper. Bitcoin and XRP remain above their realized prices, suggesting their dips may not be as deep. CryptoQuant warns the market could still see one more leg lower before a durable floor is established. Short-term, this could mean continued volatility; long-term, the accumulation by large holders often precedes recovery.
The crypto community has responded cautiously to the data. Some analysts see the whale accumulation as a bullish signal, while others note the lack of price action suggests no immediate breakout. CryptoQuant's framing of "quiet absorption" implies a steady hand rather than panic selling. Market participants are watching whether ether's below-cost status attracts further buying or signals extended weakness.
Going forward, investors should monitor ether's realized price as a key indicator. If ETH holds above its lower band and whale accumulation continues, a floor may form within months. However, CryptoQuant states plainly that valuation leaves room for one more leg lower. The next major catalyst will likely be whether Bitcoin whales sustain their buying and whether ether's mid-sized holders reverse their distribution.
