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Bitcoin slips near $63,500 as traders look past CPI to Fed’s next tests
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Bitcoin slipped to near $63,500 on Thursday, down over half a percent on the day and almost 2% on the week, as an in-line U.S. inflation report proved enough to calm nerves but not enough to move the market. Most major tokens declined, with Dogecoin dropping almost 3% to 7 cents, XRP over 1% to $1, and BNB over 1% to $610. Hyperliquid's HYPE was the standout, up over 3% to $56, while Tron added marginally and is up 2% over seven days.
The July inflation report landed almost exactly where economists expected. Headline inflation rose 0.1% on the month and 3.4% on the year, while the core measure that strips out food and energy rose 0.2% and eased to 2.5%. That reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve can wait on further rate moves, and futures markets cut the odds of a September rate rise to about 38% from 46% before the release.
The data trimmed a tail risk but failed to create a rally catalyst. In the immediate aftermath, gold rose 1.3%, ether just over 1%, bitcoin around half a percent, and S&P 500 futures 0.2%. Global stock markets reacted more positively than crypto, with MSCI's Asia Pacific index rising almost 1% and Korea's Kospi rallying almost 4% into a technical bull market, up 22% in ten days.
Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk that bitcoin moves hardest when inflation data forces a rethink on rates. He noted that bitcoin gained an average 3.25% across the three occasions in the past nine releases when inflation came in below expectations, including a 4.24% rally after a downside surprise on July 14. 'An in-line report can remove a tail risk,' Selby said. 'It takes a genuine surprise to create a catalyst.'
Selby also sees room for the Fed to wait, citing shelter costs up just 0.1%, energy down 1.5%, and gasoline down 2.9%, with some goods categories lapping last year's tariff-driven increases. The next tests will be the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers later this month, the Sept. 4 jobs report, and the Sept. 11 inflation release.
The mood was not uniform across markets. Cisco fell over 4% after hours on underwhelming earnings, and Cerebras Systems dropped 17% on declining hardware sales. Brent crude snapped a six-day run of gains after a stretch that took it to $90 a barrel, as an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps adviser said Iran was preparing operations on U.S. soil under a new military doctrine.
