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China and the US each have 4 companies able to stay at the cutting edge...
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Bill Gates, chairman of the Gates Foundation, recently announced that he will invest $1 billion over the next two years to promote AI technology to benefit the world's poorest people. On the eve of the announcement, Gates had a dialogue with Sina Technology, sharing views on hot topics such as the competition between Chinese and American large models, AI energy consumption, and the development of humanoid robots, and repeatedly mentioned China's performance in related fields.
During the dialogue, Gates spoke highly of China's AI development, saying that "Chinese large models are performing very well." He predicted that the capabilities of cutting-edge large models in China and the United States will more than double in six months. When asked about his specific assessment of China's open-source large models, Gates said that depending on the measurement method, both China and the United States have four or more institutions whose models can maintain the most advanced level, and the gap between the highest-scoring model and the other seven leading models is not large, but he did not reveal specific institution names.
Gates pointed out that the world's top eight large models today have all surpassed the best level from four months ago, and China and the United States have entered a stage of "super competition" in talent and computing power in this field. He believes this competition is good for low-income countries, including Africa, because it means these countries can obtain options with good performance and lower prices. He also suggested that some technologically leading countries allocate 5% of their data center computing power as "digital aid" and provide it free of charge to poor countries for humanitarian fields such as healthcare, agriculture, and education.
In response to external concerns that AI's energy consumption will exacerbate carbon emissions, Gates admitted that data centers in the United States rely heavily on natural gas for electricity, bringing about a 3% to 4% increase in carbon emissions. "This is indeed very, very regrettable." But he remains optimistic about the long-term prospects, believing that AI's impact on the global climate will do more good than harm. He specifically mentioned China's achievements in energy transition, saying that China's installed photovoltaic power generation capacity surpassing coal power for the first time is "a very good milestone."
Speaking of the humanoid robot sports games just held in China, Gates expressed amazement: "I think it was very interesting and very well organized. Just the event itself was incredible." He noted that compared with other countries, Chinese people pay more attention to humanoid robots. He once visited a company in Shanghai developing robotic hand technology and believes that hand dexterity remains the most difficult challenge at present. He predicted that if humanoid robots are cheap enough and reach human-level performance in construction and manufacturing, they will have a positive impact on productivity.
Regarding the impact of AI on the job market, Gates admitted that humanity may experience a turbulent transition period of 20 years. He suggested designating jobs that require "human warmth" as "human-only," and proposed levying a "token tax" on AI to subsidize affected groups. He emphasized that social structures are built around work; work is not only about salary, but also about social circles and a sense of self-worth.
The Gates Foundation has set a "closure countdown," planning to exhaust all grant funds, estimated at up to $200 billion, by 2045 and officially close. Facing the AI wave, Gates called on global governments, tech giants, and peers to jointly invest resources to make this cutting-edge technology truly practical, affordable, and accessible, so that no one is left behind in the technological transformation.
