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More Australians to live into their 90s as life expectancy forecast to rise over coming decades
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Australia’s latest intergenerational report forecasts that more people will live into their 90s, with life expectancy at birth projected to reach almost 90 for women by 2065/66, up from about 86 today. For men, life expectancy is expected to rise to 86 years over the same period, from 82 years. The Treasury report, to be published in full on Monday, projects the impact of government policies 40 years into the future. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said universal healthcare and medical research were the key drivers of rising life expectancy, making the case for further investment in Medicare, the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, and urgent care clinics.
However, the growing and ageing population will also be at the centre of long-term budget pressures. Chalmers described some elements of the report as confronting, but insisted it was not pessimistic, saying Australians are well placed for accelerating change. Population growth is expected to slow to 0.9% a year over the next four decades, down from 1.4% annually in the previous 40 years. The nation’s population is predicted to reach 39.3 million by 2065/66, 1.8 million lower than the 2023 forecast.
Much of the slowdown is tied to lower fertility rates, with fewer women having three or more children. Chalmers said the government’s job is to make it easier for people to have children if they want to, citing policies on childcare subsidies, paid parental leave, and superannuation. Future government debt is expected to be half a trillion dollars lower than previously forecast, but much of the economic progress relies on emerging technologies.
Artificial intelligence will become the “defining influence” on the economy over the next four decades, according to the report. Chalmers warned that AI comes with “very substantial risks”, while Treasury advice suggests it could deliver significant productivity gains if Australia keeps pace globally. The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, is visiting the United States this week to discuss a global framework for AI rollout, urging the US and China to cooperate in humanity’s interest. He cited the nuclear non-proliferation treaty as an example of past cooperation on dangerous technologies.
US President Donald Trump said he would appoint an AI tsar and create an “AI Force”, but gave few details, calling fears surrounding AI a “hoax”. Chalmers said the government would work to minimise AI’s substantial risks while embracing its potential. The report’s outlook suggests Australia’s demographic and technological future will bring both opportunities and challenges over the coming decades.
