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Think gas prices are too low? Don’t fret, Trump plans to raise them Monday
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The U.S. Department of Transportation is expected to announce a revision to vehicle fuel-economy standards on Monday, according to an updated report. The proposal would lower the 2031 fleet target from 50.4 miles per gallon to 34.5 mpg, a change critics say would increase gasoline consumption by about 45 percent. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy described the release as coming “Monday,” while President Donald Trump said the policy would lower costs. Those claims conflict with analyses cited in the report, which project a 76-cent increase in gasoline prices.
Vehicle efficiency has been a federal policy issue since the Arab oil embargo and energy crisis of the 1970s. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy program, commonly known as CAFE, requires manufacturers to meet an average efficiency target across the vehicles they sell or pay penalties for higher-emitting models. Rather than requiring every vehicle to achieve the same mileage, the program allows manufacturers to balance larger vehicles against more efficient cars and light trucks. Federal rules, along with state emissions policies, have steadily improved fuel economy and reduced urban air pollution.
The latest proposal would apply a substantially weaker target as the market shifts toward larger trucks, sport-utility vehicles and other high-mileage vehicles. It also represents a departure from earlier projections that anticipated continued gains in vehicle efficiency and reductions in petroleum consumption. Trump characterized the change as reversing an electric-vehicle mandate, although the proposal is primarily a revision to fuel-economy rules rather than the repeal of a specific EV requirement. A final announcement is now expected Monday after the rule had previously been described as imminent.
The mileage figures illustrate the scale of the potential increase in fuel use. Traveling the same distance at 34.5 mpg instead of 50.4 mpg requires roughly 46 percent more gasoline, even before considering changes in driving patterns or fuel prices. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which administers CAFE, has estimated that the proposal could increase fuel expenditures by $185 billion. The Department of Energy analysis cited in the report projects an average price increase of 76 cents per gallon, while additional demand for gasoline could place further upward pressure on prices.
Consumers would not necessarily pay 76 cents more immediately or in every state, because gasoline taxes, regional supply conditions and market volatility also influence pump prices. Nevertheless, drivers buying more fuel for the same journeys would face a recurring increase in transportation costs. The policy could also raise carbon emissions by an estimated 5 percent by allowing more fuel to be burned for each mile traveled. That would offset part of the emissions reductions expected from newer vehicles and increase pressure on states working to meet climate and clean-air goals.
The proposal drew strong public opposition during its comment period. The report says 68,294 comments were submitted, with the vast majority opposing the plan because of its projected effects on household expenses, petroleum consumption and the environment. Consumer advocates, environmental groups and many state officials have generally defended CAFE standards as tools for reducing costs and pollution. Some industry participants may support easing requirements for high-profit truck and SUV sales, but manufacturers could also face higher costs if vehicles must use more advanced and expensive technologies to meet future targets.
The final rule is likely to become a major test of regulatory authority and the durability of federal fuel-economy policy. A weakening of the 2031 target would lower compliance pressure in the near term, but manufacturers would still have to respond to market demand, emissions regulations and state standards. Opponents are expected to challenge the decision in court or through political oversight, while supporters may seek to preserve or restore stronger targets in later rulemakings. Regardless of the legal outcome, the announcement will intensify debate over whether lower pump prices and consumer affordability should be prioritized over fuel conservation, emissions reduction and long-term energy security.
