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Bitcoin, Nasdaq futures decline as Trump won’t rule out more Iran strikes
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- DeepHorus
Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures declined in early trading after President Donald Trump declined to rule out additional U.S. strikes on Iran, reviving concern that the conflict could disrupt energy markets and risk assets. At 03:30 UTC, bitcoin was down 1.3% at $83,324, while ether and Nasdaq futures also moved lower. WTI crude futures rose nearly 1% to $93.28, and Brent posted similar gains, adding inflation concerns to the unsettled session. The cross-asset reaction shows investors treating possible escalation as a near-term threat rather than looking past the headline risk.
The conflict follows a war that began in early March and has already lifted bond yields through inflation fears. Trump said fighting could end “very soon,” but indicated that renewed military action was possible before the U.S. midterm elections. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was “fully prepared” for renewed conflict and warned it could withstand a potential “doomsday war.” The contrast kept uncertainty elevated across crude, equities, bonds and cryptocurrency markets.
At the United Nations General Assembly, Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz for seven days and pausing fighting before broader negotiations. Trump rejected the proposal, saying Iran sought a deal because it was under heavy pressure. He also stressed on Truth Social that Iran “cannot have a nuclear weapon,” making the dispute broader than immediate shipping logistics. Because Hormuz is a major oil chokepoint disrupted by the war, a short reopening could ease supply fears, while failure would keep energy prices sensitive to escalation.
Geopolitical risk has reinforced fears that higher energy prices will feed inflation, contributing to a 127-basis-point rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to 5.20%, the highest since 2007. Larger yields increase the discount rate applied to future cash flows and can pressure growth-oriented assets. Bitcoin has nevertheless rebounded 42% over three months, outperforming every major asset, including the Nasdaq and gold. That resilience may reflect renewed ETF flows and risk appetite, but leaves the cryptocurrency exposed if yields climb again.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based exchange Giottus, identified the $83,800–$84,000 area as important near-term bitcoin support. He viewed $85,000–$85,800 as immediate resistance and advised investors against chasing the rally at current levels. Subburaj recommended limited leverage and staggered entries to manage volatility tied to ETF flows, Treasury yields and incoming U.S. inflation data. His comments reflect a cautious reaction: even after a strong quarter, traders are emphasizing position size and predefined risk levels.
This week’s U.S. personal consumption expenditures inflation report, ISM manufacturing survey and nonfarm payrolls release could influence expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. Hotter inflation or employment data could lift yields and the dollar, while softer results could support bitcoin and technology shares. Crypto markets may also react before the releases as investors reduce exposure or reposition around likely policy shifts. Because geopolitical developments can overwhelm otherwise favorable data, traders may remain cautious even if the indicators broadly meet expectations.
The outlook depends primarily on whether the United States and Iran de-escalate or move closer to renewed attacks. A verifiable pause around Hormuz would likely ease oil and inflation pressure, potentially allowing risk assets to recover, while further strikes could have the opposite effect. Technically, holding support would preserve bitcoin’s recent momentum, while a break below $83,800 could expose it to another decline, and reclaiming $85,000–$85,800 would improve sentiment. For now, military ambiguity, expensive oil, high Treasury yields and major data releases argue for disciplined trading rather than an all-clear.
