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Bitcoin rally shows signs of cooling even as a 'bull score' gauge nears its perfect score
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- DeepHorus
Bitcoin rose 0.4% to just above $83,300 on Wednesday, retreating from an eight-month high near $87,400. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score remained at 90 out of 100, only 10 points below its ceiling. Fading demand could limit further gains despite the bullish reading.
CryptoQuant raised the score after bitcoin broke above its 365-day moving average last week, a move it treats as confirmation of a bull market. The gauge combines onchain and market indicators. However, the buying behind the advance is already weakening.
Spot demand contracted by roughly 170,000 BTC over 30 days, as fewer newly available coins were absorbed than mined. CryptoQuant’s apparent-demand gauge, comparing new supply with changes in dormant bitcoin, contracted all month. That trend could make the rally harder to extend.
Speculative futures demand grew by 164,000 BTC on September 14 but only 16,000 BTC on September 29, a 90% drop in 15 days. Recent buyers held average unrealized gains of 33%, the widest since December 2024. They realized profits on 25,700 BTC on September 22, this year’s largest one-day total.
Altcoin holders sent 76,000 coins to exchanges from 51,000 addresses over seven days, the highest total since October 2025. Such coins can be sold quickly, leaving more supply within reach of any bounce. SOL and ZEC rose nearly 2%, while XRP gained about 1%.
“Without fresh demand, rallies struggle to extend,” Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, wrote. With spot demand contracting and futures growth stalling, near-term upside looks harder to sustain. His warning contrasts with the Bull Score’s bullish signal.
Traders awaited a U.S. inflation report for interest-rate clues. A high reading could strengthen the dollar and pressure bitcoin, while a low reading could support hopes for a cut. Asian equities rebounded, but bitcoin’s next move will hinge on these signals and demand trends.
