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Why bitcoin is down 'just' 32% a year after its record high of $126,000
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Bitcoin is trading 32% below the record high it set one year ago, a decline that would qualify as a crash in traditional markets but stands as one of the shallowest post-peak slides in the cryptocurrency's history. The world's largest digital asset hit an all-time high above $126,000 on Oct. 6, 2025, and now trades at $85,453. Analysts say the muted pullback reflects a structural shift in who owns bitcoin and how the market clears risk.
The contrast with earlier cycles is stark. Exactly one year after its 2013 peak, bitcoin had fallen 69.7%; after the December 2017 top it was down 82.3%; and following the November 2021 high it had dropped 74.6%, according to CoinDesk calculations. The broader bear market has also been gentler, with prices bottoming just below $59,000 on June 30, a decline of more than 53% from the peak. Previous downturns saw prices plunge 77% to 85% from record highs.
Timing has changed too. In past cycles the trough typically arrived around the one-year mark or later, whereas this time the low came roughly nine months after the peak, followed by a comparatively quick recovery. "The most notable changes are the significantly shortened duration of the drawdown and the reduced time spent at the bottom," said Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group.
The composition of buyers explains much of the difference. Earlier bull runs were driven by retail traders using leverage, cycles that ended in cascading liquidations, fund blowups and exchange failures, as seen in 2022. The 2023-25 rally instead drew institutional inflows through regulated vehicles such as exchange-traded funds, while the downturn reflected a macro-led reversal of those flows. "Buyers in this current cycle increasingly stem from outside the crypto market, including ETFs, asset management giants, family offices, and even corporations," Sun said.
Leverage was also flushed out early. Griffin Ardern, co-founder and vol desk PM at Primal Fund, noted that most of it was unwound on Oct. 10 last year, when a macro-driven sell-off triggered more than $19 billion in liquidations across crypto derivatives markets. "ETF allocation money rebalances to target weights β it buys weakness by construction," Ardern said, adding that the absence of returned leverage meant nine months to grind out a 53% decline rather than months of cascading liquidations taking it down 80%.
Calm comes at a price, however: calmer rallies. Analysts warn that henceforth bull runs may be more measured, even as they caution that a shallow correction does not rule out sharper downside ahead. As bitcoin matures and participation broadens, its famous volatility may increasingly give way to steadier, more institutionally anchored price action.
