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Research Firm Calls Anthropic's IPO 'Unprecedented Test of Investor Gullibity'
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New Constructs has called Anthropic's planned Nasdaq IPO the "most ridiculous IPO of 2026." The independent research firm valued the AI company at just $150 billion in a Tuesday report. It warned that a potential $2 trillion market cap would be an "unprecedented test of investor gullibility." Anthropic did not respond to a request for comment.
New Constructs estimates Anthropic would need double Nvidia's trailing-year profit to justify a $2 trillion valuation. Nvidia's net income over the past four quarters topped $190 billion. Reuters reported that Anthropic's 2025 revenue was $4.6 billion while its net loss reached $42 billion, citing a leaked prospectus.
The firm argues Anthropic lacks a viable business as open-source models intensify competition. "Since the arrival of open-source models, it's been clear that the closed models would struggle to generate profits," New Constructs wrote. It added the IPO's purpose is not to enrich public investors but to provide liquidity for Wall Street backers.
David Trainer, New Constructs' founder and CEO, has a history of bearish IPO calls. The firm named WeWork the "most ridiculous IPO of 2019"; WeWork pulled its offering six weeks later and filed for bankruptcy in 2023. New Constructs also criticized Allbirds' 2021 IPO, which later ended with a $39 million asset sale.
Yet Trainer's record is mixed. New Constructs made DoorDash its "most ridiculous" 2020 IPO, comparing it to WeWork, but DoorDash went public at over $60 billion and has since grown to $83 billion. Trainer acknowledged in 2021 that "crazy stuff happens" and his firm does not always get it right.
Anthropic has claimed its annualized revenue run rate rose sevenfold year-over-year to $65 billion by the end of July. The New York Times reported in September that the company was on pace for $100 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026. New Constructs also cited Anthropic's warning that AI could pose a catastrophic or existential risk to humanity as another reason to avoid the IPO.
