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JPMorgan projects Bitcoin to outperform US stocks and gold over next decade
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JPMorgan Asset Management has projected Bitcoin will outperform US large-cap stocks and gold over the next decade, marking its first inclusion in the bank's long-term capital market assumptions. In its 2027 report, published Monday, JPMorgan estimated a 10% annualized return for Bitcoin, compared with 7.5% for US large-cap stocks and 5.5% for gold. The outlook covers more than 200 assets.
JPMorgan framed Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing rather than a portfolio diversifier. It said unstable market correlations currently prevent a strong case for Bitcoin in diversification strategies. The reportâs projections span a wide range.
Its bull case projects Bitcoinâs annualized return at 16.6%, while its bear case projects an annualized loss of 11.2%. The calculations considered Bitcoin supply growth relative to money supply, its potential role alongside gold and network adoption. These factors underpin both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.
The forecast matters because JPMorgan is one of the worldâs largest asset managers, and its assumptions help shape institutional portfolio planning. Including Bitcoin gives the asset a formal place in discussions about decade-long returns. The bankâs caution about volatility and correlations still underscores the risks.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan welcomed Bitcoinâs inclusion, writing on X that critics first ignore, then laugh at, then fight an asset before adding it to long-term assumptions and predicting it will be the best performer. Bitwise has issued a more bullish forecast. In August 2025, it projected Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035 with a base-case annualized return of 28.3%.
JPMorganâs outlook stops short of endorsing Bitcoin for diversification, describing it as speculative and tied to monetary easing conditions. That distinction separates long-term return expectations from portfolio allocation advice. With traditional assets forecast to return less, Bitcoinâs inclusion could influence how investors assess risk and reward.
