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Data centers could erase decades of air quality gains
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- DeepHorus
New research warns that Texas’s data center boom could reverse decades of air quality gains. The Houston Advanced Research Center found that if all planned data center projects connect to the grid and run on the anticipated power mix, soot and smog-forming pollution would surge within five years. The report says fine particle pollution from the power sector would more than triple, reaching its highest level since 2006.
Texas has become the leading U.S. data center market, with 26 gigawatts of existing and under-construction capacity. The state also faces four times more proposed onsite-powered data center capacity than any other state, according to a March Wood Mackenzie report. Many developers are turning to gas turbines to speed construction and avoid grid connection delays.
Under HARC’s modeled scenario, smog-forming NOx emissions would rise 136 percent, approaching 2004 levels. Carbon dioxide pollution would climb 90 percent above 2025 levels. Those projections are not inevitable; they depend on how utilities and developers meet massive electricity demand.
The findings matter because Texas has spent decades cutting emissions from transportation and other sectors. HARC modeled three energy-demand projections, and many proposed projects remain speculative. Still, the report says the pollution risk is real if gas-fired generation expands.
Onsite renewable power could sharply limit the damage. NOx emissions could be up to 10 times lower if data centers pair grid electricity with solar and wind generated onsite. By contrast, building gas engines onsite could produce the highest possible pollution levels.
John Hall, HARC’s CEO, said children and grandchildren may breathe dirtier air than current generations. He warned that decades of successful emissions reductions are now at risk. The outcome will depend on whether Texas chooses cleaner power or locks in new fossil fuel infrastructure.
