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Renewables to reach 40% of total generating capacity, beat gas within a year – EIA
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Renewable energy will reach 40.4% of total U.S. generating capacity within a year, up from 37.7%, according to new Energy Information Administration data reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign. That share would surpass natural gas and exceed nuclear capacity fivefold. The projection signals a major shift in the U.S. power mix.
The EIA’s Electric Power Monthly, using data through Aug. 31, 2026, showed renewable generation rose 10.2% year over year in the first eight months. Utility-scale solar grew 20.0%, small-scale solar 12.0%, wind 7.8%, hydropower 4.2%, and geothermal 3.8%. Natural gas output rose 2.6%, nuclear 1.3%, while coal fell 8.7%.
From January to August, wind produced 333,367 GWh, or 10.6% of U.S. generation, and solar produced 329,119 GWh, or 10.5%. Hydropower added 180,940 GWh. Wind and solar combined accounted for 21.1% of domestic electricity. All renewables reached 28.1% of generation, up from 26.2% a year earlier.
Over the year ending Aug. 31, renewable capacity expanded by 43,497.9 MW, including 27,141.7 MW of utility-scale solar, 6,526.1 MW of small-scale solar, and 9,979.1 MW of wind. Battery storage added 17,586.9 MW. Fossil fuel and nuclear capacity net added only 2,612.6 MW, so renewables’ expansion was nearly 17 times greater.
EIA projects utility-scale renewables will add 53,117.3 MW in the coming year, almost 44% above the prior 12 months. Their share of utility-scale capacity should rise from 34.5% to 37.3%. Solar is expected to add 44,603.1 MW, and wind 8,312.3 MW, including 3,355 MW offshore.
With small-scale solar included, renewables are on track to surpass natural gas by summer 2027. EIA estimates small-scale solar capacity at 63,192.6 MW but offers no forecast. The SUN DAY Campaign stresses that renewables’ growth far outpaces fossil fuels and nuclear. EIA expects no new nuclear capacity and a 1,997 MW net decline in fossil fuels.
