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UK warns AI ransomware attack on infrastructure ‘highly likely’ by 2028
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- DeepHorus
The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre has warned that AI-powered malware is highly likely to be used in a ransomware attack on the country’s critical national infrastructure by 2028. The assessment, published in the NCSC’s Annual Review 2026, says artificial intelligence will make ransomware operations, social engineering and vulnerability exploitation faster and more efficient. The warning places AI-enabled cyber risk alongside the UK’s economic and national security concerns.
The NCSC said the threat is not limited to criminal ransomware gangs. It warned that China, Russia and other nation-states will use “AI cyber” to pursue geopolitical goals, increasing the scale and speed of attacks against the UK. The review links these capabilities to a broader shift in how states harness emerging technology.
Beyond infrastructure, officials flagged growing state-backed cyber espionage against politicians, government officials and other high-risk individuals. During the year, the NCSC observed persistent spear-phishing campaigns against such targets and increasing attempts to compromise messaging applications. These efforts aim to hijack accounts and access sensitive communications.
The NCSC also pointed to international evidence of the risk. In March, Dutch intelligence agencies warned that Russian state hackers were targeting officials, military personnel and civil servants worldwide. Attackers impersonated Signal support in attempts to hijack accounts, showing how trusted platforms are being mimicked.
The agency stressed that technology has always shaped cybersecurity, but the pace of change is now different. It said the ability of state actors to harness new technologies will increasingly determine their effectiveness. That perspective frames AI as an accelerant of existing threats rather than a distant possibility.
The forecast gives UK defenders a narrow window to harden critical systems, improve detection and reduce exposure to AI-enhanced social engineering. With nation-state activity and ransomware increasingly overlapping, the NCSC’s warning signals that AI cyber risk is becoming a national security challenge.
