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Bitcoin’s price has cleared a key hurdle that has historically preceded major bull runs
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Bitcoin has cleared a key technical hurdle that historically preceded major bull runs, closing above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks. The weekly close for the period ended Sept. 20 signals the bear market may have ended, according to Galaxy Research. Bitcoin traded near $81,450 after gaining nearly 6% for the week and 29% over 35 days.
The 50-week moving average is the average weekly closing price over roughly the past year, serving as a proxy for Bitcoin's long-term trend. During healthy advances, Bitcoin trades above the line; during prolonged declines, rallies often fail below it. Galaxy has described the average as a ceiling during major drawdowns.
The weekly close matters because Bitcoin trades around the clock, with its weekly candle closing at 23:59 UTC on Sunday. Analysts place more weight on weekly closes above a major moving average than on brief intraweek moves. Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research called the move a potentially important confirmation that the bear phase may have run its course.
Galaxy found 13 weekly closes back above the average since 2011; in 11 of those, the market did not set a new low. Notable crossovers include January 2012, which preceded a 600-fold rally to $1,200 in late 2013, and October 2015, which led to a 100-fold rally to $20,000 in December 2017. A May 2019 crossover preceded a 22-fold rally to $69,000 in November 2021, and a March 2023 crossover was followed by an eightfold rally to about $126,000 in October 2025.
History is not a guarantee, as two of the 13 instances failed during the volatile period of late 2021 and early 2022. Bitcoin briefly moved above the average but then fell again. The current outlook depends on whether Bitcoin can remain above the roughly $78,115 level.
A sustained hold could signal a new uptrend, while a drop back below would weaken the bullish case. The 29% rebound adds momentum, but analysts caution that past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors will watch upcoming weekly closes for confirmation.
