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Bitcoin reclaims 50-week moving average as analysts eye end of bear market
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Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time in more than 10 months, a development some analysts say could signal the end of its bear market. The weekly close on Coinbase on Sunday was $81,159, above the 50-week moving average of $78,788, according to TradingView. The last weekly close above that level was on Nov. 9, 2025. The move is also Bitcoinâs highest weekly close in four months.
The 50-week moving average has historically served as a ceiling during bear markets, said Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Research. In four of the five completed bear markets, once the 50-week moving average was first broken to the upside, the bear market bottom was definitively in, he noted. Thorn added that retaking the 50-week moving average has previously confirmed the end of a bear market.
Collective Shift founder Ben Simpson said before the weekly close that Bitcoin closing above the level would be the last thing he needed to see before calling it a bull market. He pointed out that Bitcoin gained between 700% and 900% after breaking above the moving average in 2017, 2020, and 2023. The latest close adds weight to the case that Bitcoinâs recovery is underway, according to Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee.
However, Lee cautioned that one weekly close is not enough to confirm that Bitcoin has reached its cycle bottom. What matters now is whether Bitcoin can stay above the 50-week average and continue forming higher lows, he said. Failed reclaims have occurred in previous cycles, particularly when the macro environment remained difficult.
Galaxy also warned in August that the signal is not infallible. Of 13 weekly crossings back above the 50-week moving average, two were followed by a lower low, both during the 2021-2022 bear market. Lee said the market backdrop is stronger than earlier this year, with Bitcoin recovering significantly from its July lows of $57,000. Repeated liquidations have cleared out leverage, and there are signs of returning institutional demand.
Crypto trader Craig Cobb told Cointelegraph that he is not watching the 50-week moving average to determine whether a bull market has begun. Instead, he is looking at $83,000 as a key level, which would mean there is no lower high on the monthly chart. His second test involves Bitcoinâs three-month chart, looking for a red-to-green candle transition followed by a break above the green candleâs high.
Cobb said that transition has occurred 15 times in Bitcoinâs history, and in 11 instances the high was subsequently broken, all leading to new all-time highs. He said a break of $83,000 combined with the close of the September three-month candle and a subsequent break of its high would confirm the bull market. For now, analysts remain divided on whether the latest weekly close marks a definitive turning point or merely the first step toward one.
