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Kalshi faces ‘fake crypto volume’ allegations as critic flags identical $5,500 trades
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- DeepHorus
Kalshi, a regulated U.S. prediction market that recently launched crypto perpetual futures, is facing allegations of fake trading volume. Quant analyst Beni of Stealth Neolab flagged on X that the platform reported $539 million in ether perpetual trading volume against just $3.1 million in open interest. That 174-to-1 ratio is widely seen as a textbook sign of wash trading.
Open interest represents the total dollar value of active contracts, while trading volume counts contracts that changed hands. Beni found repetitive $5,500 trades accounted for up to 58% of Kalshi's entire ether perpetual volume across four separate days. He called the pattern 'undeniable proof' of volume manipulation. He also cited a fee schedule filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that allows certain self-clearing members to pay net-zero fees.
That schedule pairs a 0.3-basis-point maker rebate with a 0.3-basis-point taker fee. Beni argued that when trading against yourself costs nothing, the incentive to inflate volume rises. Kalshi's crypto lead, IcoBeast.eth, denied the allegations and initially said the fee structure deters manipulators.
After the thread went viral, IcoBeast.eth provided a detailed rebuttal. He said the Artemis chart used in the complaint measured prediction-market share, not perpetual contract volume. Kalshi also explained that its headline volume follows the same reporting convention as Polymarket.
Under that convention, volume reflects the maximum potential payout rather than upfront cash spent. For example, buying 100,000 contracts at 30 cents costs $30,000 but records $100,000 in volume because each contract pays out $1 at maturity. Kalshi emphasized that its public regulatory filings ensure absolute transparency.
The dispute highlights the difficulty of assessing true liquidity in prediction markets and perpetual futures. It may intensify calls for clearer volume reporting standards across the industry. CoinDesk reached out for further comment but did not receive an immediate response. Kalshi maintains that its reporting is consistent with industry practice.
