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Robinhood CEO Says Crypto Will Beat Sports at Prediction Markets' Own Game
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Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev has declared that cryptocurrency-linked prediction markets will soon overshadow sports wagering on his platform. Speaking on CNBC's "Mad Money," Tenev stated that crypto categories are capturing a disproportionate share of activity in Robinhood's event contracts, and he expects sports to become a minority within a few years.
Prediction markets, regulated as derivatives by the CFTC, allow users to trade yes-or-no outcomes on events like Fed decisions, elections, or games. This differs from traditional sportsbook betting. Tenev leveraged this regulatory distinction to argue the business is not mere gambling.
The growth trajectory supports his vision. Robinhood's event-contract revenue surged over tenfold year-over-year to $156 million in Q2 2026. Trading activity exploded, with contracts traded 4.7 billion times in August alone, approximately 15 times the volume from August 2025.
To build this business, Robinhood partnered with Kalshi, which won a legal battle against the CFTC to offer election contracts. The company also formed Rothera, a joint venture with Susquehanna, and recently took minority stakes in Crypto.com and its prediction-market spinoff OG.com.
Tenev positioned sports as the initial "wedge" to attract users and liquidity. However, he sees the industry expanding far beyond it, with crypto contracts allowing users to directly monetize insights on topics like market structure legislation.
Competition in the space is intensifying. CME, Coinbase, and decentralized platforms like Polymarket are all vying for traders in the rapidly growing event-contract sector.
Despite the growth, not all reactions in Washington are positive. Lawmakers have introduced more than 10 bills since January targeting prediction markets, including proposals that would ban congressional members from trading such contracts.
Tenev frames the entire endeavor as promoting financial ownership, which he believes leads to societal stability. He draws a parallel to the company's retirement contribution match, presenting prediction markets as another tool for broad asset ownership.
