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Musk: SpaceX Could Hit $1 Trillion in Revenue by 2028
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- DeepHorus
On October 20 local time, Elon Musk posted on a social platform that it is no longer impossible for SpaceX to achieve $1 trillion in revenue in 2028. This statement is significantly earlier than his previous forecast, triggering widespread market attention to the commercial space company's growth prospects. Musk also stressed that although the goal sounds crazy, the company's internal data already support this judgment.
On the same day, SpaceX announced its third-quarter 2026 results. The financial report showed that the company's revenue for the quarter reached $14.6 billion, up 161% year over year; net profit was $4.4 billion, compared with a net loss of $1.1 billion in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $8.8 billion, up 306% year over year. This was SpaceX's first quarterly profit since going public, marking a fundamental shift in the company's financial structure.
By segment, space business revenue was $1.8 billion, up 84% quarter over quarter and 6% year over year. Annualized at the third-quarter level, SpaceX's full-year annualized revenue would exceed $55 billion. Although this figure is already quite considerable, there is still a huge gap from the $1 trillion target. Analysts believe that the growth in Starlink's user base and the increase in the frequency of commercial Starship launches are key factors driving the acceleration of revenue.
The significance of profitability goes far beyond a milestone. A SpaceX that reliably generates cash flow can support Starship production expansion and Starlink business expansion without diluting shareholder equity or taking on debt. Musk said this structural shift will directly accelerate the pace of revenue growth. Previously, earlier in 2026, he had estimated that SpaceX would not achieve trillion-dollar revenue until around 2030, and that it was basically certain to be achieved in 2031. In just a few months, the same target was moved forward by two to three years, reflecting that the company's actual performance has far exceeded internal model expectations.
To understand the weight of $1 trillion, one can refer to Appleāone of the most profitable companies in history, which also took decades to approach this revenue scale. SpaceX needs to maintain extraordinary growth across Starlink's scaled-up global broadband service, Starship commercial and government launches, point-to-point cargo transport and future Mars missions, as well as new business lines derived from satellite and defense contracts.
From an industry-impact perspective, SpaceX's profitability and accelerated-growth expectations may reshape the competitive landscape of commercial space. Traditional aerospace companies and emerging rivals will face greater pressure, while investor confidence in the space economy is expected to be further strengthened. If Musk's prediction comes true, $1 trillion in revenue in 2028 will not only be a leap for the company itself, but also mean that the global communications and space industries enter a new stage.
Looking ahead, whether SpaceX can deliver on this aggressive target depends on the speed of Starlink user expansion, the frequency of Starship launches, and the commercialization progress of new business lines. The market will closely follow the company's subsequent quarterly financial reports to verify whether the growth momentum is sustainable. In any case, Musk's latest statement has set a new imaginative horizon for the commercial space field.
