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Bitcoin in 'Wait and See Mode'—And That Might Be a Good Thing
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- DeepHorus
Bitcoin has been unusually quiet, moving no more than 6% over the past month and trading near $81,735, down 1.2% on the day. Every top-five cryptocurrency failed to move more than 2% over the past week, per Decrypt data. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at a neutral 47.
Market analysts say a dull market is not a bad sign. Jake Koch-Gallup of Blockworks noted that low-volatility stretches historically led to 30% price swings within months. André Dragosch of Bitwise Europe called the quiet period a "constructive sign" typical of an early bull market.
Bitcoin is in "wait and see mode" as investors await the Federal Reserve's rate decision on October 28, Dragosch said. The Fed raised rates in September, the first hike since 2023, and CPI rose 0.6%. Bitcoin hovers near its "economic midpoint," where half of invested capital is in profit and half at a loss.
Dragosch added that current drawdowns have been less damaging than in previous cycles, while oil, chip stocks, and bonds see elevated volatility. That suggests investors are willing to absorb weakness, he said, calling it "resilience rather than euphoria." Carlos Guzman of GSR blamed a "risk-off" sentiment driven by macro uncertainty and AI fears.
Despite the quiet, buying has not disappeared. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $80,000 last week but quickly found buyers, Guzman said. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw a $665.20 million inflow on Monday, per CoinGlass, though buying has not been consistent enough to drive a sustained rally.
Koch-Gallup pointed to three catalysts: the Fed decision on October 28, an options expiry on October 30 of $11.69 billion, and the U.S. midterms on November 3. If the Fed keeps rates steady and ETF inflows continue, he expects an upward break. If the Fed hikes again, the market could face renewed pressure.
