- Published on
Apple Overtakes Nvidia—Which Will Be Bigger by End of July?
- Authors
- Name
- DeepHorus
Apple has reclaimed its position as the world's most valuable company, overtaking Nvidia in market capitalization. According to Polymarket, a prediction market platform, Apple's probability of finishing July as the largest company surged to about 79% on Tuesday, while Nvidia's fell to approximately 22%. The contract, which has attracted $4.7 million in trading volume, will resolve based on market close on July 31. As of Tuesday's close, Apple was valued at roughly $5.0 trillion, about $227 billion more than Nvidia's $4.768 trillion. That lead, while substantial, could still vanish in a single volatile trading session.
Apple's resurgence comes amid shifting investor sentiment toward artificial intelligence spending. For the past two years, Apple was criticized for being slow to embrace AI, but its cautious approach is now viewed as prudent risk management. In contrast, Nvidia, whose chips power AI data centers, faces growing concerns about capital expenditure (capex) by major cloud companies. Reuters estimates that five leading cloud firms could spend more on capex than they generate in free cash flow by 2027, potentially squeezing returns.
Nvidia's shares recently declined on reports that the chipmaker might provide a roughly $250 billion financial backstop for an OpenAI data-center project. This has fueled worries that AI companies are increasingly financing their own customers, raising questions about long-term profitability. Despite this, Nvidia's data-center revenue surged 75% to $62.3 billion in its latest reported quarter, indicating robust demand for AI infrastructure.
Apple, meanwhile, has not abandoned AI. The company unveiled a rebuilt Siri in June with conversational features and personal-context awareness, relying on a mix of external models and its own on-device systems. This strategy, once dismissed as evidence Apple had lost the AI race, now appears more cost-effective compared to rivals' massive infrastructure investments.
Investors are closely watching Apple's fiscal third-quarter results, scheduled for release on July 30 at 5 p.m. Eastern time. The earnings report could serve as a major catalyst, potentially solidifying Apple's lead or opening the door for Nvidia to overtake it before the July 31 market close. Polymarket's contract will capture the final market capitalization at that time.
The race between Apple and Nvidia underscores a broader shift in market dynamics, as AI-related spending comes under scrutiny. While Nvidia remains a dominant player in AI hardware, Apple's disciplined approach and ecosystem strength have regained investor favor. The outcome of this month's contest may signal whether the market prioritizes AI growth or capital efficiency in the near term.
